The decimation of the Mahagathbandhan and the rout of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) have surprised poll pundits, who expected a closer fight between the two alliances. From the very beginning, the National Democratic Alliance enjoyed an edge due to wider social coalitions. The RJD was seen to be stuck in a social logjam with no addition to its M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) social base.

Congress was always seen as a weak link in the Mahagathbandhan, bringing no additional value to the alliance. But how does one explain the RJD’s poor performance, which is comparable to 2009 when Nitish Kumar was at the zenith of his popularity? Has the M-Y social combination finally been breached? The disenchantment of Muslims with the RJD was palpable throughout the campaign, on account of their sense of betrayal with respect to the representation given to the community. Advertisement The rout might prove to be a blessing in disguise for Congress if it carefully reads the writing on the wall and has any steam left to reinvent itself in states like Bihar.

It is common knowledge that Congress cannot revive itself nationally until it stands on its own feet in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. But can the Grand Old Party seize this opportunity to bounce back? There are many factors behind Congress’s repeatedly poor performance in Bihar. Its electoral woes in Indian politics at the moment are both national and regional.

But there are some specific issues that plague the party in Bihar, where it has survived under the wings of its ally, the RJD, since 2000. The party became rudderless after Mandal and Kamandal politics came to dominate the state. Its traditional social base among Muslims, the upper castes and Dalits became fragmented and shifted to the RJD and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For some time, it was under the illusion that this was a temporary setback and that its lost social constituency would return. But when the survival challenge started spreading nationally, it felt that it was safer to ally with — and under — the RJD.

Yet whenever its gradual marginalisation in national politics haunts it, the party sets out on a mission of revival. Rahul Gandhi’s many yatras have been intended precisely for this purpose, and the recent Voter Adhikar Yatra was one such move. Advertisement But can such a hit-and-run approach extricate the party from the rot in which it finds itself? The message from Bihar is loud and clear.

One-track campaigns like the caste census and representation for the OBCs will not work, even in Bihar. Gandhi and Congress should realise that social justice politics is now old and rusted in the state, with more credible voices like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish having used it to the hilt.

Picking up this agenda to neutralise the BJP is like calling the wrong number. Also Read | In Bihar, why people voted for Nitish Kumar again Need for a new narrative Congress should realise that Bihar needs a new narrative of economic rejuvenation and social empowerment. Social justice politics has run its course and is crying out for economic content and an alternative vision.

The disenchantment of Muslims with the RJD is also a pointer to the rustiness of secularism and of the security discourse championed by the RJD. That is why Muslims appeared to be looking to Congress expectantly.

The major challenge for Congress in Bihar is to reinvent itself. The gloomy economic situation in the state, as revealed by the 2023 caste survey, is the report card of 20 years of NDA rule. But why did people still repose faith in the leadership of Nitish? The key to this lies in the absence of a credible leader and an alternative narrative of politics with a new vision for the economy and society.

Bihar seems set for a new era in politics in the post-Nitish period. Prashant Kishor and the Jan Suraaj Party are aiming to fill the void likely to be created soon, when EBCs, women and the unemployed youth may be open for political poaching. It is well known that the EBCs can never shift to the RJD due to deep social contradictions between the Yadavs and the more than 50 different EBC castes.

Nitish appears to them as a bulwark against caste majoritarianism within backward-class politics. It is not that Congress is unaware of this, and the delay in announcing Tejashwi Yadav’s name as the CM face was largely due to this concern.

Congress needs to come out of the shadow of its allies in Bihar and start with a clean slate. It needs to move away from its reliance on the party’s dynasts who are at the helm of affairs in the state. It needs to hone and groom a new breed of leaders in different communities, particularly the EBCs and Dalits, and put forward an alternative vision for economic revival and social harmony.

The writer is professor, Political Science at Aryabhatta College, University of Delhi.