PTI Photo Note: Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and may turn out to be wrong on the results day (May 4). New Delhi: With not much of a difference between the Left-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF, exit polls have predicted a close contest between the two rival factions.

According to the poll of polls, the UDF is expected to cross the majority mark with 72 seats in the 140-seat Kerala Assembly. However, the LDF is not expected to lag far behind the Congress-led faction, with pollsters suggesting 63 seats for the ruling front. Axis My India has predicted the biggest difference between the two.

LDF and UDF, with 55 and 83 seats respectively. On the other hand, PMARK exit poll has predicted a majority for the ruling LDF with 75 seats. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is trying to replace the LDF government in power.

The electoral history of Kerala has generally been defined by alternating LDF and UDF governments. However, the LDF’s consecutive victories under Vijayan in 2021 disrupted that pattern, making the 2026 contest a test of whether traditional anti-incumbency sentiment remains intact.

The LDF’s defeat will also reduce the CPM’s presence in its last major bastion. The narrative of the campaign has also changed significantly.

The initial phases were dominated by scandals involving opposition leaders as well as issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, backdoor appointments, the Sabarimala gold heist controversy and concerns over rehabilitation of Wayanad landslide victims. However, as the election campaign intensified, these issues gave way to sharp political attacks, including allegations of secret alliances, communal polarization debates and direct exchanges between senior leaders.

The LDF has framed the election as a referendum on the “Pinarai Model”, which highlights welfare expansion, infrastructure development and administrative. Centralization. It has also promised an expanded welfare agenda if returned to governance.

The UDF, on the other hand, has pushed a counter-narrative of “welfare with accountability”, questioning the efficiency, transparency and financial sustainability of government programs while relying on voter fatigue and economic concerns.