NASA James Webb – For several months, the asteroid has been tracked by researchers as calculations indicated that there was a slight chance of the asteroid hitting the moon on December 22, 2032. In February 2026, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope captured infrared images of the faint object and further refined the asteroid’s orbit. The new orbit indicates that the asteroid will pass safely 13,200 miles (21,200 km) above the Moon, eliminating the initially calculated 4% chance of impact.

Webb Telescope Observations Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) has recorded data on asteroid 2024 YR4 over two nights in February 2026, according to NASA. This has enabled NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies to significantly reduce the uncertainty in the asteroid’s orbit. This confirms that the asteroid will pass safely by the Moon.

This dispels previous concerns that it could collide with the Moon with a 1–4% probability, allowing it to briefly receive a Torino Scale rating of 3. Previous observations as early as 2025 had already shown that the asteroid would not threaten Earth in 2032.

Webb’s infrared advantage The Webb telescope’s advanced infrared technology allows scientists to see the faint asteroid YR4, reflecting light on the almond’s flare, from a distance equivalent to that of the Moon. The brightness of the YR4 asteroid has decreased significantly in early 2026, and scientists have used the Webb telescope’s precise tracking technology to observe the asteroid during several hour-long sessions.

Ground telescopes will begin observing the asteroid in 2028. Webb’s technology allows scientists to see the thermal radiation emitted by the asteroid while filtering out interference from the Sun and atmospheric disturbances to confirm that the Moon and Earth are safe.